The 2019 NFL draft is less than two weeks away, which seems like a perfect time to get to some of your mailbag questions. Here goes:
Q. Potential trade-down scenarios and what we could expect in return. — @tbutler05
A. I got a few questions about trading down in the draft, because that’s obviously Bob Quinn’s biggest hope. The Lions aren’t going to be in position to grab one of the top three players in the draft, and if there are, say, 10 players in the next tier, it behooves them to move down, pick up some extra ammo and add a player from that tier anyway.
There are two problems with that, though. One, just about everyone wants to move down. Teams have gotten wise to the notion that drafting is about quantity as much as it is quality. And two, there’s got to be a player that another team wants to move up to get.
As Todd McShay said in his conference call earlier this week, there’s probably “a 95% chance” that if a team was to deal up early in Round 1 “it would be for a quarterback.” (The other possibility would be Kentucky’s Josh Allen or Alabama’s Quinnen Williams if they fell, but I think the Lions would gladly take either of those players.)
So let’s start with teams that need quarterbacks when looking at potential trade-down scenarios for the Lions. The Broncos at 10, Bengals at 11, Dolphins at 13 and Washington at 15 are teams that could reasonably want a quarterback bad enough to move up, though I think Cincinnati and Miami might be better served waiting till 2020.
Using the common NFL draft trade value chart, the Lions’ pick at No. 8 is worth 1,400 of a maximum 3,000 points. The others needing QBs, in order, are: Denver (1,300), Cincinnati (1,250), Miami (1,150) and Washington (1,050). To make up the difference, both Washington and Miami likely would have to give up their third- and fourth-round picks (326 points total for Washington, 262 for Miami), while Cincinnati would give up its third-rounder (230 points) and get back the Lions’ fourth-rounder (72 points).
A deal with Denver wouldn’t be as cut and dry since the Broncos pick early in Round 3 (at a pick worth 235 points) and late in Round 4 (at a pick worth 47 points), but there always are future picks and players that could be included to balance out any trade. The other team rumored to want to trade up, the Falcons at Pick No. 14, would have to give up something along the lines of third- and fourth-round picks in this year's draft, a fourth-rounder next year.
In just about any trade-down scenario, the Lions would be adding an extra top-100 or so pick.
Q. If Hockenson is a guy on their wish list, do they believe he’ll still be available if they trade out of a top-10 pick? — @theothertswift
A. That’s the other part of trading down: What player is there for the taking at the spot you move down to? Maybe the Lions don’t value some of the pass-rush options at No. 8 like other teams do and would be content taking a cornerback like DeAndre Baker or an offensive lineman like Jonah Williams in the teens.
Iowa’s T.J. Hockenson, the man I sent to the Lions in my latest mock draft, is the top tight end available and someone I think is destined to go in the top half of the first round. I think he could go as high as Jacksonville at No. 7, and I see other reasonable suitors like the Bills at No. 9, Bengals at 11 and even Green Bay at No. 12.
Hockenson is a safe enough and well-rounded enough player that if the Lions truly have designs on taking him, they better not move down too far.
Q. White, Sweat, Gary, Oliver, Ferrell... (rank) them in order I have them on (your) board... and also rank them in terms of likelihood the lions draft each in Round 1? — @CHEN313
A. After talking to NFL scouts about those prospects the last couple months, I'd rank them Devin White, Ed Oliver, Rashan Gary, Montez Sweat and Clelin Ferrell, and I think they come off the board in close to that order. I don't know Sweat's medicals — he reportedly had a heart condition that was identified at the combine, but wasn't sent home like Maurice Hurst before his draft-day plummet last year — so I don't know how the Lions will value him.
White and Oliver are pretty clean prospects and should go in the top 10, Gary and Sweat have huge upsides but questions about their production (in Gary's case) and off the field (in Sweat's). Ferrell is another clean prospect who might fit the Lions better than, say, Gary, though his upside isn't nearly as high.
Q. Do the Lions go Risk/Reward with the 8th pick or play it safe? — so to speak. — @Will_Michaels
A. Bob Quinn has been pretty risk averse as a general manager, especially at the top of the draft, and I don’t see any reason why he’ll change his approach now. Taylor Decker, Jarrad Davis and Frank Ragnow all were players were clean character and pretty high floors coming out of college, and the Lions took them over players with higher ceilings but less likelihood of reaching that potential.
The quality of player Quinn can get at eight should be better than the quality of player he’s been able to land in the first round of previous drafts, but I feel pretty confident in saying he’ll remain disciplined and true to the traits he values in team building. Guys like Hockenson, Devin White and Ed Oliver, to name three, fit that mold.
Q. 5th or 6th round sleepers? [sic] — @BrettAmarth
A. We’ve talked about the top of the draft a little bit, but the Lions have five picks in the final three rounds to fill some of the many holes they have. I’m not sure how these guys will be valued come draft day, but here’s a few sleeper names at positions of interest for the Lions.
Hawaii receiver John Ursua was a combine snub, but the Lions used one of their 30 allotted pre-draft visits to bring him in for a medical check. Ursua was an extremely productive receiver at Hawaii — he led the FBS with 16 touchdown catches last year — and he’d fill a need for the Lions at slot receiver.
Marshall safety Malik Gant is an interesting Day 3 name in a deep safety class. I think Tracy Walker is a starter next year opposite Quandre Diggs, with Andrew Adams potentially the No. 3. But there’s still room for the Lions to add another player at the position. Gant is a big-time hitter who’ll probably start his career on special teams .
The Lions are going to draft an offensive lineman they can groom to take over one of those interior jobs eventually. I don’t know if he makes it to Round 5, but Charlotte’s Nate Davis is a big interior lineman with experience at right guard and right tackle who offensive line coach Jeff Davidson has shown interest in.
Q. Are the starting 5 O-lineman currently on the Lions' roster? RT @davebirkett: Feels like a good time for a pre-draft edition of the Lions mailbag. What’s on your mind today? — @DaveBenjamin
A. Dovetailing off that … I do think the five linemen the Lions will start Week 1 are currently on the roster, which is to say I don’t see the Lions spending a first-round pick on a lineman in this draft. Second round? Perhaps. And definitely by early in Day 3 they’ll have taken one. But if I was projecting the Lions’ Week 1 line, I’d go with the five returning starters from last year (including Kenny Wiggins), though I do think Oday Aboushi has a legitimate chance of replacing Wiggins given his ties to new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell.
If we’re talking at any point this season, I certainly could see a rookie getting some run at some point, and keep an eye on Tyrell Crosby’s development, too.
Q. I know this isn't what people want to hear about, but I am still very curious to what happens to people in @snacks position last year. Did he just play the extra game for free?? What if a player had 2 byes? They get paid a game check in their 2nd bye week? — @SZipperface
A. Good questions. NFL players are paid their base salary over the 17 weeks of the regular season, so no matter how many games they play (or byes they have), they get 1/17th of their salary for every week they’re on the roster. Damon Harrison became just the eighth player since 1931 to play 17 games in a regular season when he did so for the Lions last year.
I asked Harrison late in the season about that feat, and he said it had “no significance to me whatsoever.”
“You don’t get a ring for it, you don’t get a trophy or an extra pay check so I don’t see what the big deal is about it,” he said.
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.Read more on the Detroit Lions and sign up for our Lions newsletter.
https://www.freep.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2019/04/12/detroit-lions-nfl-draft-scenarios/3439396002/
2019-04-12 10:00:00Z
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